Young Voters vs The Democrat Party?

Young Voters vs. Democratic Party
Ari Melber, September 3, 2008, Huffington Post

Young voters hold key for Obama
Will supporters show up Nov. 4?
Jessica Cherry and Carly Robertson, August 28, 2008, www.Freep.com

Harvard University Institute of Politics Youth Polling Update
Harvard University Institute of Politics (The 2008 Pre-Convention Survey Update
Field Dates: July 28th- August 12th, 2008)www.iop.harvard.edu

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Young Voters vs. Democratic Party
Ari Melber, September 3, 2008, Huffington Post

Sen. Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee largely because of unprecedented turnout by young voters in key primary states. (More data below.) Last week, walking around the speeches, panels and parties at the Democratic National Convention, it was clear that young voters are ascendant. Young people made up 16 percent of the delegates, a 50 percent increase since 2000, and they set the tone in a packed Mile High Stadium on the Big Night. The New York Times gives a flavor of how young people dominated the vibe:

In a twist on the normal convention finale, the prominent figures -- donors, elected officials and media celebrities like Dan Rather -- looked somewhat like the interlopers. Younger people dressed in jeans and shorts -- many not of voting age -- seemed decidedly more at home, as if they were attending an open-air concert and were fully versed in the festival ritual. The wave broke out in Section 338 just after Mr. Gore's speech ended and spread quickly around the stadium.

Justin Rockefeller, a youth voting advocate who has attend several conventions with his father, Sen. Jay Rockefeller, told me that this year's convention was the youngest he's ever seen. "From my memory it definitely looks younger -- not so much on delegate floor, but more so in the hallways and especially outside," he observed.

But all is not well with the youth vote.

Michael Connery, an analyst of youth engagement and the author of "Youth to Power: How Today's Young Voters Are Building Tomorrow's Progressive Majority," worries that young voters were "seen but not heard" at the DNC:

Turnout among young voters in the Democratic primary was double the level recorded in 2004, and young voters broke heavily in favor of Sen. Obama. In the Iowa caucuses, young voters performed on par with the "reliable" senior vote, and were widely credited with providing Sen. Obama's margin of victory... Despite this unprecedented youth involvement at the convention, young people were more likely to be seen than heard by the delegates and party officials in Denver....

Most surprisingly, the one place young voters were completely absent at the Democratic National Convention was at the podium. During my four nights at the convention I did not see one young voter or youth organizer -- from CDA, YDA, SFBO or otherwise -- address the convention. Thursday at Invesco Field was no better. Not one young person took the stage that night.

These are important critiques. It's odd that Obama's team did not tout more youth stories and voices during prime time, since he needs to keep his young base energized for turnout. convention.

There was, however, at least one major youth speaker on Thursday night at the stadium. Ray Rivera, 29, a Colorado state director for the Obama campaign, addressed the 80,000 person crowd -- twice. He was promoting, naturally, a text message organizing program, which recruited 30,000 new numbers that night alone. There was a big map and everything. I followed up with Connery, but he was not impressed. He emailed from the Republican National Convention:

I don't count Ray Rivera's time on the stage. He may be young, but his purpose on stage was not to represent youth at the convention, it was to list build for the campaign. He was not there as an advocate for young people on the many pressing issues we face, and even if he were, one slot in four nights would still be skimpy representation considering what young people have done for Democratic candidates since 2006.

So there. It doesn't count and even if it did it's not enough. But that vision is a bit too cramped.

It is good that Obama entrusted his operation in a key state like Colorado to a young operative; just as it was good for Obama to put so much faith in young web organizers who upended U.S. politics with their online strategy, social networking and web fund-raising. Joe Rospars, Sam Graham-Felsen and Chris Hughes, for example, are all 27 or younger.

In many ways, empowering young people without putting them in youth constituency silos is better than just checking the youth box with some official speaker. Rivera had a huge -- probably nerve-racking -- role on the Big Night to actually do something in his official role, albeit related to the youth vote, rather than just giving a quick talk about how Barack inspires students.

There could have been more young speakers on stage all week -- and it will be interesting to see the contrast for Republicans in St. Paul -- but the text message addresses were a good start

For a full video breakdown of Obama's youth edge, here's a clip of a recent panel I attended on the Youth Vote in 2008:

Ari Melber writes for the Washington Independent, where this first appeared.

Young voters hold key for Obama
Will supporters show up Nov. 4?
Jessica Cherry and Carly Robertson, August 28, 2008, www.Freep.com

DENVER -- Sen. Barack Obama rode a young-voter revolution to his party's presidential nomination, and you can see evidence of that at the Democratic National Convention. What's unclear is whether he can maintain his appeal among the young and convert it into votes in November.

From 2000 to 2008, the percentage of party delegates younger than 36 nearly doubled, from 9% to 16%, according to Jane Kleeb of Young Voter PAC, which supports Democratic candidates who reach out to young voters.

Obama won the Democratic nomination on the backs of these young Americans, and he hopes to rely on them again to beat Republican rival Sen. John McCain this fall.

According to a Harvard University Institute of Politics poll, Obama has maintained a 23-point lead over McCain this summer among likely voters ages 18 to 24. That's substantially higher than the 9-point advantage that Democratic nominee John Kerry earned in his 2004 loss to President George W. Bush.

Obama's ability to inspire and turn out these voters in the primary season is well documented.

"Because he's younger and represents change, people are involved for the first time," said Rick Herron, 18, a convention volunteer from Dresden, Tenn.

At the same time, history suggests that it's difficult for presidential candidates to convert youthful support into Election Day results, and there are indications that the tug and pull of this long campaign already is eroding Obama's appeal among young people.

When she was asked about her feelings toward Sen. Joe Biden as the Democrats' vice presidential nominee, one 19-year-old voter, who didn't wish to be identified, responded with a wrinkled nose, "I think he's the same old white man."

Meadow Spisak, 24, a graduate student from Denver, also expressed concern about Biden. "The few things that I have learned, it sounds like he's said some things that may be offensive, and that makes me a little hesitant as to why he chose him as his VP," she said. Spisak added, "I'm behind Obama, so by default I guess I'm behind Biden, too."

Youth voter movement grows

This year's youth movement isn't new. The 2004 presidential election and 2006 midterm election experienced significant spikes in young voter participation, and they may have laid the foundation for Obama's young-voter surge.

"I was a college freshman that campaigned for Kerry by handing out yard signs for a total of about 20 minutes," said Matt Herrick, 22, of Los Gatos, Calif. This year, he's a member of the convention staff and a passionate Obama supporter.

Herrick said part of Obama's appeal was his embodiment of social mobility. "He came from a single-parent home, was raised partly by his grandparents and has become a leader," he said. "He is a symbol of the break from ... silver-spoon politics."

Herron said the Obama campaign's leadership in new technology also was a factor in his draw among the young. "Obama has really managed to reach out to the right mediums," he said, citing as an example the text message sent out to announce Obama's vice president choice.

Harvard University Institute of Politics Youth Polling Update
Harvard University Institute of Politics (The 2008 Pre-Convention Survey Update
Field Dates: July 28th- August 12th, 2008)www.iop.harvard.edu

Background

As part of Harvard’s Institute of Politics ongoing analysis of 18 to 24 year old voters dating back to 2000, the IOP has conducted a survey of N=1,031 18 to 24 year olds on issues related to the 2008 campaign for President. This project is an interim update to our Biannual Youth Survey on Politics and Public Service, which saw its 14th release issued on April 24, 2008. The interviewing period for this study was between July 28 and August 12, 2008; all interviews were conducted online by our research partner, Harris Interactive. The major objective of this study was to measure the attitudes of young voters related to election preferences and understand how they plan to engage during each of the conventions. According to the U.S. Census, there are approximately 25.5 million 18 to 24 year old citizens in the US today. In addition to this brief, full data and a topline report with methodology are available here.

Key Findings

(1) Obama maintains solid 23-point lead among likely young voters over McCain

Heading into the Democratic convention, Senator Obama holds a solid 23-percentage point lead over Senator McCain, 55% to 32% -- with 13% undecided. This lead is virtually unchanged since our last poll, which was conducted in the spring, before the Democratic nomination was settled. To put this into context, Harvard IOP polling from the 2004 election cycle showed Senator John Kerry with a 13-percentage point (52%-39%) lead among college students in the month leading up to the election. According to exit poll results, Senator Kerry won the total youth vote (18-29 year olds) in 2004, by a 9-point margin, 54%-45%.

Senator Obama’s strongest level of support comes from African-Americans (93%-3%), Democrats (88%-3%), Independents (62%-13%) and young voters from the East Coast (68%-22%). Among men he leads 53% to 34%; among women 58% to 30% -- and among Hispanics/Latinos by 12 points (49%-37%).

(2) More than 3-in-5 young voters are excited about the election; nearly half of likely voters interested in volunteering on a campaign
Overall, 62% of young voters report that they are excited (23% very excited, 39% somewhat excited) about the upcoming election, including 69% of 18 to 24 year olds currently in college. Among those not on a college campus, 59% say that they are excited about the election. In addition to the current gap in the horse race, a significant “enthusiasm” gap exists between Obama and McCain supporters on this issue. Slightly more than four-in-five (83%) young voters planning to vote for Obama tell us that they are excited about the election this fall, which is 27 percentage points higher than McCain’s supporters (56%). It should be noted that 44% of Obama supporters say they are “very excited,” while only 11% of McCain supporters say the same. In addition, 68% of all young female voters say they are excited (56% of male voters), 74% of African Americans, 64% of young Hispanic/Latino voters and 60% of young Born-Again- Christians are excited about the election this fall. In politics, excitement often translates into engagement and this is most certainly the case for both Obama and McCain supporters this year. A slight majority of Senator Obama’s supporters (51%) indicate that they were interested in volunteering (12% very interested) on the campaign and 39 percent of McCain’s supporters said the same (13% very interested). These numbers translate to hundreds of thousands of potential volunteers for both campaigns – ready and willing to engage if asked.

(3) McCain and Obama in virtual tie on readiness to be Commander-in-Chief and terrorism; Obama considered more likely to bring change, improve U.S. image abroad and improve the economy
In addition to finding solutions for the economy (39% report this as the most important issue facing the country), the situation in Iraq (15%), health care and immigration -- our previous quantitative and qualitative research tells us that young voters also seek a President who can change Washington and improve the country’s image abroad. The following table summarizes who young Americans trust more to handle each of these very important issues facing the country. Senator Obama leads significantly on macro-level issues related to image and change, moderately on pressing domestic concerns, and is virtually tied or behind Senator McCain on key issues related to the terrorism and readiness to be Commander-in- Chief.

(4) Young people tuning in to the DNC and RNC to hear about plans for the economy
Nearly two-in-five (39%) young voters indicate that they plan to follow the Democratic convention closely (10% very closely, 29% somewhat closely) and three-in-ten young people plan to follow the Republican convention closely (3% very closely, 27% somewhat closely). When asked which topic or issue they would most like each of the candidates to address, the responses were very similar: 23% reported that they would like Senator Obama to address his plans for the economy, and 24% reported that they would like Senator McCain to do the same.
Following are two representative verbatim responses to this open-ended question:

To Senator Obama:

“I would like to know what he plans to do when he becomes President to ease every family’s financial stress. My family can barely afford to live in our current situation and we are the lucky ones.”

To Senator McCain:

“What will he do (sic) to help Americans with the rising cost of everything. Food, gas, everything we need to live on is going up but our pay is staying the same. People are having to choose between eating and paying bills.”

(5) Multimedia convention experience expected
Like the Olympics, while a majority of young voters who plan to follow the DNC and RNC closely will watch them on live television, additional media platforms will also play an important role in how young people will receive information about each of the candidates and their parties. The following table summarizes the likely convention watching habits for the Democratic Convention and the Republican Convention.

In conclusion, these results continue a trend that was first established in the earliest days after 9/11 of a political and civic re-awakening among this generation, which we call Millennials. While Senator Obama has clearly tapped into this movement, it is important to note that it existed before the Obama campaign as the 2004 and 2006 elections saw significant spikes in youth voter participation.

Additionally, young voters are not a monolith. In the eight years that the IOP has conducted this research we have seen significant changes in the attitudes of this generation on a number of issues. Like other generations before them, Millennials include college students, entrepreneurs, young working families and are more diverse than any generation in American history. Their votes should not be taken for granted by one party or the other. The next edition of our biannual survey will be released in October 2008.